Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi declined Monday to respond to a CNN report that she is planning to seek another term in the House of Representatives and has not definitively foreclosed on going for two more years holding the gavel.
And keeping everybody guessing her intentions is exactly what she should do, according to political strategists interviewed by Pezou.
Easily the most visible congressional Democrat since 2007 when she became the first woman in American history to be chosen as Speaker of the House, Pelosi said on Nov. 18, 2020, shortly after being re-nominated as Speaker, that she would abide by her 2018 vow that the current, 117th Congress, would be her last in the job.
That vow came in response to demands from a handful of House Democrats who were concerned about Pelosi’s advancing age, 81, and that of the other two House leaders, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), who is 82, and House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), who is 81.
Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Colo.) was the leader of the group of dissident Democrats. Perlmutter’s spokesman did not respond to a request from Pezou for comment.
CNN report Monday said that “Speaker Nancy Pelosi will stay until at least after the midterm elections, extending her nearly 20-year run as the House’s top Democrat after she turns 82 and, perhaps, beyond.
“She is planning to file and run for reelection in her San Francisco district next year—at least for now—in keeping with her pattern of deciding about staying in Congress after the elections, when she likely will have won an 18th full term.
“And sources familiar with Pelosi’s thinking say she isn’t ruling out the possibility of trying to stay in leadership after 2022, despite her original vow to leave as the top House Democrat.” cable news outlet did not name its sources.
All of the Democratic strategists approached by Pezou for comment on Pelosi’s future declined to do so, in what might well be viewed as a measure of the fear and respect the San Francisco Democrat has accumulated nearing the mid-point of her 17th term in Congress.
Republicans, however, were not so reticent.
“I think she has to say that [she’s running again] until the Build Back Better bill passes, assuming it does,” said Matt Mackowiak, president of the Washington, D.C. and Austin, Texas-based Potomac Strategy Group.
Mackowiak was referring to President Joe Biden’s signature massive social spending legislative proposal that will cost either $2.4 trillion or nearly $5 trillion, depending upon which of two Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates are used.
“Obviously, if she were to not run again for re-election, it would create even more panic inside the House Democratic Conference. It would also create upward movement in Democratic leadership ranks, which has been something that has really been held back for quite a while,” Mackowiak continued.
Mackowiak said he doubts Pelosi has any interest in becoming House Minority Leader after the 2022 mid-term congressional elections, which Republicans appear set to dominate and retake the majority, at least in the House.
“Do I believe she’s going to go back to be Minority Leader? No, I don’t, just because I don’t think she will stay and do that,” he said. “What is more likely to happen is she will run for re-election, then resign and force a special election for her seat. So I think the odds are she will run again, but when they lose the majority, she will not stay there.”
Brian Darling, former counsel to Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and founder of Liberty Government Affairs in the nation’s capital, said he believes Pelosi “is on borrowed time as Speaker” due to the political environment created by President Joe Biden.
“Pelosi has been a very effective leader for Democrats and she has done a good job of keeping her fractured caucus together, yet that is not enough to save Democrats next cycle,” Darling said.
“With President Biden’s poll numbers in the dumps, inflation being perceived as a big problem and no Trump on the ticket, things look really grim for Democrats. It is likely that Democrats lose between 40 and 60 seats in the House in my estimation,” he said.
Darling also suggested Pelosi may wish to be done with the increasingly fractious conflicts among the various factions of the House Democratic Conference.
“One of the big problems Democrats have today is that the caucus is fractured. progressives have marginalized Democrats with the American people thanks to the push to defund the police and promote Critical Race ory,” Darling said.
“y also are pushing Democrats for a more extreme version of the Build Back Better plan that does not have much support amongst the American people. Moderate Democrats are in grave danger of losing seats thanks to the progressive lurch to the left of President Biden and the leadership coming from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-N.Y.) and her socialist squad.”
Asked if a big Republican win in 2022 and Pelosi resigning would prompt a domino effect with Hoyer and Clyburn, Mackowiak said “Hoyer would be the natural successor, but if the results are as one-sided as expected right now, it may be very hard for Hoyer, or Clyburn or someone else from the senior leadership ranks to succeed her.”
Pezou : Pelosi Smart in Keeping Her Re-election Plans Close to the Vest, Strategists Say